From Broadcast to Narrowcast

Over the past two years, the consumer Internet has rapidly evolved from a meeting place for academics to a fervor of companies trying to reach online users. By the year 2002, Jupiter projects that nearly 57 million households in the u.s. will be accessing the Internet . In turn, there has been a massive surge in the number of sites offering a range of products and services, some of them relevant to the consumer, many of them useless. As a result, technology companies are challenged to develop products that enable the delivery of relevant content to consumers.

From Pull to Push

Search engines companies such as Yahoo! and Excite were the first to meet this challenge, returning information based on keyword searches. But, as more publishers set up shop, it has become increasingly difficult to find pertinent information based on keywords. As a result, sites have begun turning to push technologies as a way to deliver the appropriate content to consumers ). By asking people to fill out a digital form, indicating their preferences, companies such as Point Cast, BackWeb, and Marimba have quickly found a home will businesses looking for ways to create direct relationships with consumers.

The Internets I.Q.

A range of personalization tools and products, such as those by WiseWire, BroadVision, Firefly, Autonomy, and PersonaLogic, have been gaining favor by providing consumers with an "intelligent" way to separate the Internet's wheat from its chaff, and in doing so, strengthen business/consumer relationships. Using WiseWire's technology, for example, Lexis-Nexis enables the retrieval of current, filtered information from its archives. Also, financial sites such as Liberty Financial Corp. and the Internet Shopping Network have adopted Broadvision's One-To-One Commerce application for the dynamic generation of personalized content and commerce offerings.

Personal Problems

Growth in the personalization arena is currently being weighed down by the emergence of two approaches, each arguing that its technology is "true personalization." Collaborative filtering companies such as Net Perceptions and Firefly Network have gained popularity by comparing users' interests and making recommendations based on similarities. Sites such as Amazon.com (aided by Net Perceptions) and BarnesandNoble.com (aided by Firefly) have been able to leverage their reach using collaborative filtering to recommend books to consumers. In the other corner, information intensive sites such as Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp.com are banking on the services of neural network companies, such as Autonomy, that provide recommendations based on an end user's observed pattern of usage.

On the Horizon

The debate between personalization companies, and by many of the players in the information delivery space, will likely be assuaged by technology consolidation caused by increased competition and demand for more finely tuned services. This is already beginning to happen among search engine (- page 10), push, and personalization companies. Other factors potentially contributing to consolidation in this space are Microsoft's moves and the emergence of IP multicasting. In addition to the increased competition in the push space created by its Active Desktop, Microsoft is currently developing a number of personalization components into its MCIS (Microsoft Commercial Internet System) product line, likely displacing the need for smaller personalization players. Also, the growth of IP multicasting could potentially lock out personalization players, moving push companies closer toward a broadcast model.

Benefits at Both Ends

Both businesses and consumers are likely to benefit from information delivery tools and technologies. Online businesses will be able to use the data provided to more effectively guide consumers through the purchasing process. For consumers, these technologies will aid in separating the useful from the useless. For publishers, personalization and push technologies will help them create and maintain a consistent audience. Whatever the outcome, be it consolidation or the emergence of a larger player, the need for a body of technologies that helps to mitigate the amount of irrelevant information for consumers and businesses will ensure the growth of personalization.