Until recently, discussion board activity (the ability to post and respond to messages in a threaded, linear manner) on the consumer Internet had been controlled by a small and sophisticated niche market willing to put up with the technical shortcomings of publicly available technologies. Early implementations such as Usenet and bulletin board systems (BBS) evolved more out of a need for the highly technical to communicate than as a viable offering for mainstream consumption. While the evolution of graphical Usenet news readers and consumer online service forums has helped to make discussion boards in the consumer space more accessible, acceptance has been slow.
But, the birth and frenzied growth of the World Wide Web (WWW) has signaled an opportunity for consumer-focused message board vendors to significantly expand their market. Jupiter Communications projects that by the year 2002 the number of online households will increase to 55 million, the majority of which will be accessing the Internets hundreds of millions of Web sites. As a result, content publishers (see Figure 1) are looking for ways to increase traffic on their sites and, in turn, increase revenues from subscriptions, advertising, and/or licensing agreements. Message board vendors are promising to offer such a solution. Already, a number of consumer-based Web sites are taking advantage of the increased functionality and ease of use of discussion board software. A recent sampling of the top 25 consumer-focused Web sites (compiled from Jupiter's AdSpend research) found that over half (13) of the sites have already implemented discussion boards and of that number, 10 were attempting to increase revenues by placing advertisements on the board pages.
Figure 1: Adoption of Discussion Boards by Top 25 Publishers
Like corporate counterparts Lotus Domino (nee Notes) and Netscape Collabra (nee Collabra Share) now moving toward intranets, consumer-driven electronic discussions have been in use for years via three avenues-proprietary bulletin board systems, Usenet, and online services-such as America Online (AOL) , CompuServe, and Prodigy (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Technology Trends
BBSs: Primarily a local phenomenon, bulletin board systems were developed by microcomputer enthusiasts in the early 1970s and featured areas where users could post messages. Despite their shortcomings, early market players such as San Francisco's The Well enjoyed a sizable following due partly to the novelty of this new medium and partly to the bonding experience associated with navigating these awkward systems.
Usenet: Years after the advent of BBSs, Unix administrators in 1979 tweaked a message-copying program to create an Internet-based bulletin board; the program was improved in 1981 to accommodate more postings. Today there are approximately 15,000 newsgroups. Advertising has been traditionally reviled on Usenet, particularly in terms of postings, although ads surround content on such Usenet search engines as Deja News and Reference.com.
Consumer Online Services: Since the debut of CompuServe in 1969, message boards have been one of the strongest draws of this and other online services. Implementations have varied (America Online, for example, is once again flirting with threaded discussions after a poorly implemented attempt years ago) and made the progression from command-line to graphical user interface, but traffic flow has stayed strong ill popular areas.
The Web Takes Over
With the rapid growth of the World Wide Web among consumers, there is a renewed opportunity upon which message board vendors can capitalize, albeit in a smaller market for now. The opportunity is twofold. First, the graphical nature of the Web and increasingly non-technical nature of content publishers have put an onus on message board vendors to create easy-to-use software for both the client and server. Second, the massive growth of content sites represents a large pool of providers, many of which will seek a discussion solution. Jupiter has identified four key areas in which content sites can employ discussions:
• Data Gathering. Although the number of participants in a discussion will typically be a small percentage (under five percent) of the total number of visitors to a site, these users can be your best visitors. Their opinion can influence the silent majority and provide insights into a strategy or position.
• Content Creation. Some content sites are approaching the content generated by messaging boards as an alternative revenue stream. Howard Rheingold of Electric Minds, a site dedicated to "intelligent" conversation on the Web, is considering selling paper versions of certain key threads (with the participants' permission).
• Consumer Feedback. A predictable but prevalent use of message boards allows publishers to develop an ongoing relationship with visitors and collect feedback on the presentation of their site.
• Community Building. Discussion boards can be used to support both subscription and advertising-driven sites. For example, The Wall Street Journal Interactive is currently using message boards as a way to promote return visits, reinforcing the value of subscriptions. lnfoworld, an ad-supported site, restricts discussion boards to registrants. Users come back to the site to continue discussions and e-mails being exchanged outside the forum.
To address these needs, Jupiter has identified three approaches technology providers are taking:
• Tools. In the short-term, tool companies stand to be the most successful in the consumer marketplace as Webmasters graduate from public domain Web sites. Typically these solutions consist of proprietary scripting languages targeted between HTML and JavaScript. The primary advantage of the tool providers is their price; the forums they create do not require the purchase of an additional server (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Overview of Tool Providers
• Servers. Many vendors in this space are focused on the more proven market of the intranet space. While strong challenges have been made, primarily by Radnet and Netscape, dominant player Lotus continues to lead the corporate market. With the growth of the Web, a number of players have emerged in the consumer space (see Figure 4).Figure 4: Overview of Server Vendors
• Hosting Services. As Internet technologies evolve and become exceedingly more complex and time-consuming, outsourcing will be a viable alternative for content publishers to stay focused on their core competencies. Outsourcing companies can also, at least in theory, move beyond the technology provision and moderate discussions. Companies include Well Engaged and UK Web (see Figure 5).Figure 5: Overview of Hosting Services
Key Roll-Out ConsiderationsWith Usenet readers bundled with the two most popular browsers, It IS tempting to argue that this mainstay of Internet discussions will command the Web-based market shift. However, Usenefs size and independent spirit have been problematic for commercial interests. The Network News Transport Protocol (NNTP) , upon which Usenet is based, also has limitations that tend to cause threads to splinter and make topics difficult to navigate. Traditional news groups also lack host tools and access controls for discussion management, although Netscape is making inroads in this area. Interestingly, as it migrates its Exchange server to Internet protocols, Microsoft seems more interested in Internet Message Access Protocol (IMAP) than NNTP.
As the consumer rollouts of large players close the window of opportunity for other companies, it will be increasingly important for early market entrants to improve upon the shortcomings of their predecessors. For example, Screen Porch Software has architected its Caucus discussion board from its home-brewed Caucus Markup Language (CML)--a melting potofPerl, Visual Basic, and HTML. Each message is a link, allowing users to attach their po stings anywhere in the thread. Caucus's technology allows its users to comment on content immediately, not confirming them to dedicated messaging areas. Most important, though, is the need to eliminate the page refresh between the selection and reading of posts. To this end, developers are creating versions in Java and ActiveX.
Moving forward, Jupiter sees six major trends in consumer discussion software:
• Discussion start-ups must partner or diversify. As Netscape has realized in moving beyond the browser, one-trick ponies 'Will find it difficult to win audiences. Companies that diversify to offer both chat and discussion services are likely to prove more appealing than more specialized competitors. eShare Technologies, for example, has recently included a chat (see Figure 6) server (named Expressions) to its Net.Thread bulletin board service. Jupiter expects successful companies in this arena to follow suit.
Figure 6: Chat vs. Discussion Characteristics
• Scripts emerge as a populist solution. Currently, many content sites are still using Perl scripts to offer message board services to visitors. Of the 25 publishers that Jupiter polled (see Figure 1), 13 were using in-house solutions. While the quick and dirty road to messaging may not be as effective or dynamic as many proprietary tools, Jupiter expects that sites will migrate to forums based on scripting languages (such as Allaire Forums) or switch to more interactive languages, such as Dynamic HTML and JavaScript. Java may provide another approach, but interfaces created in Java are still too sluggish for mass appeal.• High-volume sites turn to outsourcing solutions. Specialized sites with high volume are likely to choose outsourcing solutions such as that of Well Engaged so as to remain focused on their core competencies. This trend will be particularly strong among traditional media sites where branded content is given far greater weight than community building. Discussion board services that outsource will still need to provide publishers with a way to control the content that is being generated on their sites. If hosting services do not also offer discussion moderation, a market opportunity may evolve for moderators as well.
• Technology leadership remains open. Cun'ent1y, the door is wide open for technological improvements that need to be made on Web-enabled discussions, giving entrepreneurial companies an opportunity to play a role in its development. Companies (such as Screen Porch) that enable users to closely simulate the flow and spontaneity of a normal conversation will gain favor.
• Navigation gains importance. While a hierarchical tree (used in Usenet) is a good start, it is too easy to get lost in the branches. One company that has made significant navigation improvements is OSTechnologies. Similar to WellEngaged and US Web, OSTecnologies's WebNotes is an interface to a client-server architecture called NetNotes. Allowing for seamless, highly customizable site integration, WebNotes allows users to keep track of what they have read-a rare feature among Web conferencing systems. Also, the server provides a high-speed search engine, allowing users to quickly find messages by author, keyword, and other searchable criteria. WebNotes was recently acquired by Spyglass.
• Opportunities materialize for "Meta-Readers." The distributed and diverse interfaces for discussions on multiple sites create a market, or standards, opportunity. Beyond interface amenities, demand will stimulate the development of "auto-pilot" readers for the Web. Much as off-line browsers allow users to overcome the distributed and awkward navigation of the Web, meta-posters (popular for years on CompuServe) would allows users to collate discussions from discussion threads.
Outlook
While the value of message boards has not yet been proven in the consumer Internet, there are a number of potential revenue-generating and product-development opportunities that could be facilitated by their inclusion within a site. In generating traffic, message boards serve as a way to encourage audience participation and generate original content and feedback. The revenue possibilities of well-attended discussions range from advertising to subscriptions and licensing. Moreover, message boards provide publishers with a unique way of interacting with Vls1tors and getting valuable feedback. But expectations must be kept reasonable, considering the Web's scattered and increasingly passive audience.
Fortunately for content providers, the solutions for creating discussions range from free Perl scripts to industrial-strength servers. Advances in de facto Internet development standards should provide a richer environment for Web developers to provide interface enhancements, but content, policy, and audience will determine ultimately if users come to what sites have built.
